Friday, August 14, 2015

Reporting season 2H15- Part 1


Okay folks. Another reporting season is now upon us.

Just a few glossary terms:

CAGR= Compound Annual Growth Rate
EBITDA=Earnings Before Everything Bad
EPS= Earnings per share
EV= Enterprise value (derived by adding debt on top of MC)
FCF= Free Cash Flow
MC= Market Capitalisation
NPAT= Net Profit After Tax
OCF= Operating Cashflow
HY= Half Yearly Report
FY= Full Year Report

4 August 2015

FFI FY out. NPAT of $2.1m. OCF of $3.6m. Food operations trading conditions difficult. Land on balance sheet is $18m les $3m borrowings= $15m. MC=$33m. Food business valued at $18m, about 9x, fair. Dividend 11 cents fully franked, a very good yield.

10 August 2015

COF FY results out. Underlying EBIT is over $20m, net debt $62m. Trading at 2x MC/EBITDA and 5x EV/EBITDA. International Development continues to prop up everything. Early signs of improvement in infrastructure work for Geosciences. Project Management also improved.

11 August 2015

DMP FY out. 40% NPAT increase. A 10 bagger missed.

COH FY out. NPAT $145m up 33%. FCF is similar. Guided FY16 to $165m-$175m. Market cap of $5b implies 30% CAGR for 10 years. Priced to near perfection and more.

GXL FY out. 6.5% ROE. NPAT ($22m) and cashflow ($15m) mismatch. Net OCF not enough for PPE expenditure ($40m). Debt ballooning out to $262m.

BOL FY out. Wages over 50% of revenue. Equity is $198m.

RKN HY out. Trading at 10x FCF annualised. Not priced for any growth.

12 August 2015

ICS- PIE increased holdings again.

CSL FY out. NPAT=USD$1.38b. OCF=USD$1.36b. R & D=USD$462m. Debt=$2.2b. MC=$44b, EV=$46b.

CAR FY out. $100m OCF, MC=$2.6b, EV=$2.8b. Implied CAGR 20% for 10 years.

REA FY out. NPAT $210m, FCF $190m, MC=$5.6b. Implied CAGR 20% for 10 years.

SSM FY out. Revenue=$411m, EBITDA=$25m, NPAT=$11.7m, FCF=$32m, debt is gone. Fixed comms and mobile comms carried the whole group. Increased dividend to 1cents ff. ROE is weighted down by large goodwill component, however ROTC is very good. Guided an increase in FY16 together with an action plan.  Risk of customer concentration (40% revenue from Telstra) being addressed via diversification of customer base in mobile, and into new areas such as street lighting and residential battery. Lots of ticks for CEO.

13 August 2015

SRX FY out. 69% NPAT increase, zinger shot the lights out. A sad 10-bagger missed.

ASW FY out. Steady as she goes. Capital light business spitting back cash, plus a nice cash holding and a Sydney property on the balance sheet. Special dividend and final dividend. Hampered by size and lack of scale. However, it is performing admirably compared to CPU which reported a drop in NPAT, a big debt load, and under all sorts of pressure.

14 August 2015


TWD FY out. NPAT up 27% to $6m, Revenue up 17% to $95m. Results achieved despite election delays in Qld market and delays of land registration in NSW market. VIC market still in establishment phase. Guidance for an even better year for FY 2016. Cashflow lower than NPAT due to inventory buildup. Insane ROE, but very high payout ratio and exposed to housing sector.

1 comment:

Ryan said...

Peter,

I would be curious to hear your thoughts on SCD's move to delist. Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe based on your previous comments that you are a shareholder of the company. Given the incredibly low liquidity, the move makes sense to me given the cost savings will be material relative to current earnings. I also understand management's frustration with the votes for a spill motion, even though I believe Lindeberg's compensation is too high relative to the size of the company, and the fake takeover attempt. However, I am uncertain whether management will treat minority shareholder fairly after delisting. How do you handicap the situation?

Ryan