Monday, September 26, 2016

Giverny Capital Annual Letter 2015

A bit late this year, here is another letter from the good folks at Giverny. I post these letters because I operate on a near identical investment philosophy with the notable exceptions being:

1. my writing skills are far inferior;
2. my investment record is much shorter.

Giverny Capital Annual Letter 2015.

Notable quote from the letter:

"Significant and educational conclusions can be drawn from a 20-year period. Since 1996, our companies have increased their intrinsic value by 1102%, or close to a twelvefold increase. Meanwhile, the value of their stocks has increased 1141% (net of estimated currency effects). On an annualized basis, our 9 companies increased their intrinsic value by 13.2% and our stock portfolio returned 13.4% per year. The similarity between those two numbers is not a coincidence. (my emphasis)"

Yours One Legged

Current Reading

Intelligent Fanatics Project: How Great Leaders Build Sustainable Businesses by [Iddings, Sean, Cassel, Ian]

I have just started reading this book.

This book profiles 8 CEOs and then attempts to draw some form of generalisations as to their common features. The objective is to be able to spot these features in CEOs that could possibly achieve outstanding results in the future.

At this stage, whilst being an interesting read, I am also wary of ideas that attempt to extrapolate general ideas from a small preselected sample size. In a nutshell, my argument is that we do not know of countless other CEOs, possibly with similar traits, who has actually failed and lost shareholders' money.

It is also interesting to note that the whole thing could be simplified by viewing CEOs filtering via Jack Welch's criteria of integrity, passion and 4Es, set out in his book, Winning.

I will continue reading, and post any further insights.

Readers may be interested in my Library listing here.

Yours One Legged

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Dogs versus Darlings 2.5 years later

Keeping track of my amusing exercise started in March 2014.

Since then, one of the Dogs has been taken over for a gain of 61.54%. Not to be outdone, one of the Darlings was also taken over for a gain of 22.27%.

Overall, the Dogs portfolio is down -9.5%. The Darlings portfolio, unfortunately, with -15%, has done worse.

But wait, there is more. After accounting for dividends fully grossed up, the Dogs portfolio is flat whereas the Darlings are still down -4%.

The one obvious lesson from this exercise to date is that overpaying for shares could yield results comparable or worse than buying shares in a lousy industry facing severe headwinds.

Valuation matters. Nothing grows to the sky forever.

Yours One Legged